USA
USA
Group Stage
VS
06/20, 03:00 · Seattle Stadium · Seattle
Australia
Australia
OverviewReasoningKey FactorsSensitivityData Sources
90-Minute Result Probability
Home Win
43%
Draw
28%
Away Win
30%
List generation only uses the 90-minute result including stoppage time, not knockout advancement probability.
Forecast Confidence
Medium confidence
Based on strength, ranking, host factors, and scoreline distribution stability.
Upset Risk
Medium RiskThe closer the two sides are, the more single-match volatility needs to be protected in list generation.
Scoreline Heat
1-1
13%
2-1
9%
1-0
8%
Expected Goals xG
USA xG 1.5238%
Australia xG 1.2431%
Model Notes
- 1该结果只代表90分钟含伤停补时的胜平负概率，不代表淘汰赛最终晋级方。
- 2模型使用 Elo 评分差（1930 vs 1842）、历史攻防数据和 Dixon-Coles 修正估算预期进球：1.52-1.24。
- 3胜负方向相对更清晰，但仍应保留足球单场高波动的不确定性。
- 4美国为东道主，主场加成已纳入模型。
Manual Forecast
Adjust form, attack, and home context locally to generate a page-only forecast.
Baseline
xG 1.52-1.241-1
My Forecast
xG 1.2-0.921-1
This tool provides public-data analysis, mathematical simulation, and list organization for entertainment reference only.