Tunisia
Tunisia
Group Stage
VS
06/21, 12:00 · Monterrey Stadium · Monterrey
Japan
Japan
OverviewReasoningKey FactorsSensitivityData Sources
90-Minute Result Probability
Home Win
27%
Draw
28%
Away Win
45%
List generation only uses the 90-minute result including stoppage time, not knockout advancement probability.
Forecast Confidence
Medium confidence
Based on strength, ranking, host factors, and scoreline distribution stability.
Upset Risk
Medium RiskThe closer the two sides are, the more single-match volatility needs to be protected in list generation.
Scoreline Heat
1-1
13%
0-1
10%
1-2
9%
Expected Goals xG
Tunisia xG 1.1228%
Japan xG 1.5238%
Model Notes
- 1该结果只代表90分钟含伤停补时的胜平负概率，不代表淘汰赛最终晋级方。
- 2模型使用 Elo 评分差（1706 vs 1914）、历史攻防数据和 Dixon-Coles 修正估算预期进球：1.12-1.52。
- 3胜负方向相对更清晰，但仍应保留足球单场高波动的不确定性。
- 4双方均为客场作战，无额外主场加成。
Manual Forecast
Adjust form, attack, and home context locally to generate a page-only forecast.
Baseline
xG 1.12-1.521-1
My Forecast
xG 0.8-1.20-1
This tool provides public-data analysis, mathematical simulation, and list organization for entertainment reference only.