Uruguay
Uruguay
Group Stage
VS
06/27, 08:00 · Guadalajara Stadium · Guadalajara
Spain
Spain
OverviewReasoningKey FactorsSensitivityData Sources
90-Minute Result Probability
Home Win
30%
Draw
28%
Away Win
41%
List generation only uses the 90-minute result including stoppage time, not knockout advancement probability.
Forecast Confidence
Low confidence
Based on strength, ranking, host factors, and scoreline distribution stability.
Upset Risk
Medium RiskThe closer the two sides are, the more single-match volatility needs to be protected in list generation.
Scoreline Heat
1-1
14%
0-1
9%
1-2
9%
Expected Goals xG
Uruguay xG 1.2130%
Spain xG 1.4336%
Model Notes
- 1该结果只代表90分钟含伤停补时的胜平负概率，不代表淘汰赛最终晋级方。
- 2模型使用 Elo 评分差（1922 vs 2042）、历史攻防数据和 Dixon-Coles 修正估算预期进球：1.21-1.43。
- 3平局概率不可忽略，清单生成时应单独评估防平价值。
- 4双方均为客场作战，无额外主场加成。
Manual Forecast
Adjust form, attack, and home context locally to generate a page-only forecast.
Baseline
xG 1.21-1.431-1
My Forecast
xG 0.89-1.110-0
This tool provides public-data analysis, mathematical simulation, and list organization for entertainment reference only.